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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  September 4, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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december 18th. >> who is going to admit wanting the toys, carl, you don't want that thing, do you? >> i do. >> i still have time to see all six movies. >> good weekend, guys and good weekend to you, we'll see you tuesday, let's get to the judge and the half. welcome to the halftime show, let's meet the starting lineup. jim lebenthal along with josh brown, stephanie link and jon najarian. our own steve liesman is courtside today. chubby chipotle, a snarky new ad picking a food fight with the fast casual company. our own experts debate the stock's next move. giant killer, the one stock in the nasdaq 100 over the past nine years that has better returns than apple, netflix and google. the name and the trades from our panel coming up. we begin with stocks reacting to today's jobs report, a touch weaker than expected, but perhaps good enough for the fed
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to raise rates this month. stocks are lower at this hour. i'm going to you, steve liesman, first. is the fed going to go in september or not? >> i think they can. and the reason is because i've been thinking about what they gain from waiting. and the only way they get anything from waiting is by doing something like a multi-month removal of the quarter point, right? as long as the quarter point hangs over the market. it has almost or nearly the same effect as putting it in place. they have two choices, one is they go in september, they raise it a quarter and wait a little while or they say we're not going in september and we're probably not going for a few more months. if i say let's hike and you in the meeting say let's wait until december and i ask you what do i get from that, and the answer it's nothing, it hangs over the market the entire time. it's as much as being in place, as if it was, if it was not done. >> what's lebenthal going to do if the fed moves in september? what's the makt going to do and how do you it? >> i think the market likes it,
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let's get the certainty in there. it doesn't matter whether it's september or december, it's 25 basis points. it's not going to change the economy. let's get it done and we don't have to talk about it any more. we're going to do what we've been doing, find high-quality stocks, buy them, own them for our clients and frankly what the fed will be signaling is that this economy is doing just fine, thank you very much and the profits will follow. >> how they going to raise rates if they say in the same statement in a significant downside risks are still out there. how can they have it both ways? >> i don't think they're going to say significant downside risks are out there. i think they'll come to a conclusion what's happening in china is bad. >> the 40% rise in the chinese stock market was not the answer to all that ailed the world. so the decline we've had is not the reason for the whole world to go hell in a hand basket. >> forget about the the chinese stock market. it's almost irrelevant. it's the chinese economy.
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>> when i going g back to '91-92. when i look at what happened when the japanese economy crashed, very little effect on the u.s. economy. the numbers are strong, they have to look at those numbers, they do the quarter and they do what fisher said he's going to do is wait for a while until they do something else. >> the the markets are down substantially today. is this because of a possibility of a rate hike? or does the market go down much more if the fed does move in two weeks? >> i actually wouldn't be shocked to see a relief rally when the market gets raise paid quarter point. i've said that all year. i think the bigger picture is we're in a downtrend, i've been saying it for the last couple of weeks, it hasn't been particularly popular here on the show. i get it. nobody wants to admit the environment we were in prior is now over and something new has taken hold. it's not a total negative, there's areas you can make money as always. but overall the idea that you can fling money at the market and it goes up eventually has kind of stopped. it stopped about ten months ago.
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and all of the charts indicate that risk appetite is no longer what it was. it doesn't mean that's forever. it's okay to take a pause and the better news, scott, the better news is that the economy is outperforming the stock market for the first time since the recovery began. that's a great development and ultimately that's a positive piece of feedback for the markets. even if it takes a year or two. when you have wages rising, home prices, when you have full employment, which is what we have for a college-he heducated people in this country in shot-term they're not great for corporate profits, we'll live. >> the portfolio manager at tiaa cref, a big firm with a lot of clients and customers, what are you thinking today? and put the last couple of weeks in context, how you're going to look forward here. >> we're longer-term investors as you know and we're using volatility to look for opportunity. because i'm very encouraged that the fed is so close to doing something. because the economy is better.
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the beige book to me was even more important than the nonfarm payroll numbers because that confirmed what we've been seeing and talking about for the last couple of months. consumer is doing well, housing all regions, year over year were up. >> would you go up and put a new stock into your portfolio? >> sure, we have. all of the portfolio managers continue to buy and like this is what we do. we think that the economy is getting better. therefore earnings are not topped out. and you pick themes, we talked about the consumer and housing, we talked about the payment space, i think there's a big opportunity, secular growth story there. there's secular growth in cloud and in storage. i like the fact that the market is showing more value names doing better than growth. i think that continues. especially if the fed goes. i'm a little more patient on the financials, i was uncertain as to what the fed would do. i think they act better and can you start to put money there back to work because the stocks have corrected so much. so i think to josh's point.
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you can't throw money at the market as a whole, but i think this is a stock picker's market. it has been all year and there are plenty of names out there that you buy on these days of volatility. >> where i agree with that it's such a good point is think about health care, think about consumer discretionary. these are areas that there are stocks growing earnings, even if the s&p can't grow earnings because of the industrial and energy and materials-related issues, that doesn't mean that there aren't companying thriving and the drop in energy prices, just another story that feeds into that. >> on stock picking. if you're nervous about this market, buy good balance sheets that will protect you in a downturn. plenty of stocks selling cheaply. don't have to buy cheapness, but with cash on the balance sheet that will protect you. >> they talk about josh mentioned health care. health care, government and leisure, that's where the bulk of the jobs were. those are not high-paying jobs.
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yes, we're creating jobs, we're enthused about that where i'm upset and is this is something the fed cath do. the fed can't get the banks back into the lending mode because of some restrictions. they can help and they can encourage. but that's a legislative move that unfortunately i think that is what holds us back. >> cmi loans were up 12% annualized last quarter. >> but over weak comp. >> i think you got to start somewhere, jon, don't you? >> yes, you do. >> we tightened credit at the wrong time is what i'm saying. by tightening and making lending standards so much tougher. we lost a lot of what we would have got in this recovery. >> let's bring in tobias lefkovich. are you still sticking to 2200 s&p end year? >> yes. >> why so? >> you were talking about earnings before. second quarter earnings were about flat year over year.
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if you took out energy and fx, you would be growing about 7%. keep in mind, oil prices started going down june last year. easier comps by year-end. the dollar started strengthening around july of last year. easier comps. just removing those two kind of drags, you're going to get mathematically important earnings. the fact that it seems a lofty target versus a correction we just had. in two days you had the market go up 5%. if i'm looking out four months and we get what i would call more distracting elements, for example, does the fed move in two weeks, do they move in six weeks, eight weeks. i think investors are fully aware and the fed keeps using the word normalize when they talk about rates these don't consider this a rate hike, they consider this getting back to normal. >> you just said the correction we just had. was that a freudian slip or is that the correction we're still having? >> i don't try to trade the
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market. i watch some broader metrics, i can tell you the market is going to turn tomorrow or a week from now or three weeks from now. but i can say the market did have a correction, it did pull back 10%, i know that for a certainty. when we look at the sentiment metrics, we hit euphoria last summer briefly. that's not a good signal. we're down for two weeks in panic. and that basically signals, a 96% probability of a higher market a year from now. and those are the kinds of things i focus on. not you know what's the day-to-day piece of news? >> tobias, i want to ask you about emerging markets, because to me, that seems to be what captures the market's attention on the bad days. much more so than the fed conversation. we've seen $25,000 billion ripped out of emerging markets funds in weeks. and that is about 3% of the
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assets in e.m. funds, it's a pretty significant chunk and that's after years of underperformance. are we ever going to get to a point where that market is so oversold and hated, that you just have to own some because of all the things that could go right that no one is even considering? >> sure. to put the caveat, the u.s. equity strategists in citi. not the emerging markets stra strategist. i know that the price to book has gotten down to some of the levels that you saw in the great recession timeframe so markets are pricing in a lot of bad news. the fact that investors belatedly get to it and pull the money out. we were a bit surprised by how much money has been going international relative to the u.s. where if there was a hiccup, you would have real problems in those markets. it's a lot easier to get into emerging markets than to get out. >> tobias, thanks for coming on, talk to you soon. you do the same, thanks so
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much. so the head of jp morgan quant strategy thinks we're going to have more selling in the next three weeks. if the market is going through another spat of turbulence, at the time that the fed is in the room, what's the impact there? >> i think it could stay the fed's hand. when you listened to what fisher said, the market volatility makes them nervous. same thing with dudley. but ultimately you've got more data. that i think is ultimately going to underpin this idea that the u.s. economy is doing well. 5.1% unemployment is right in the middle of their full employment number. >> i don't think anybody -- i don't think anybody would look at the performance of the economy today and say that the fed shouldn't move as a result of that. but given market upset -- >> continued market turmoil. >> and overseas. >> could stay the fed's hand.
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all right. have a good holiday weekend. our man liesman. coming up, a new ad argues chipotle isn't as healthy as they claim. do they claim it's healthy. is the stock a healthy bet for your portfolio? plus one of stephanie's favorite stocks gets some love on wall street. but jim wasn't so lucky. one of his picks seeing a lot of red today in our trader blitz, it's next. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea
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time for our trader blitz, four trades, four stocks making news today. i don't think anybody should be surprised from what caterpillar is doing in the current environment. multinationals, exposure to china, what's the story here? is that why it's down? >> it got a downgrade and the downgrade came because they had an upgrade thesis in may that made this call and as it turned out, the thesis didn't play out so now they're saying since it didn't work out we're getting out. buying high and selling low has never worked for anybody and it won't work in this case. selling out of caterpillar down here at 73 doesn't make much sense. >> it makes for -- >> take a look at joy global.
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>> it makes for a good conversation. can you buy any big multinational stock right now? >> yes. can you buy 3 m, you can buy ge, inninggersoll rand. the m stocks are challenging, there are pockets of industrials where you can own. >> louisiana pacific upgraded today, stef this is yours over at rbc. >> rbc upgraded, a housing play, nonconventional. we talked about it. the analyst believes that osb prices have bottomed and that really speaks to the tight supply and that's strong housing and limited supply coming onto the system. so the operating rates in north america are at 93%, a good sign, good signal, i still like the stock. >> 900 million reasons why facebook liked whatsapp. that's how many monthly active users the company says they
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have. >> mark zuckerberg, whatsapp is now the size they've twitters and people are i sag what's their business model? facebook had zero mobile revenues the month it went public. mobile revenues are like 80% of the company now. they will figure out a way to make money on whatsapp. they'll figure out a way 0 make money on oculus rift. these are the smartest people working on the most innovative products and whatsapp is taking over global communication. >> jimmy, you're no longer an owner of bp? >> correct. bp had three things going 0 for it, one of which was a settlement with the government. that's done, it didn't move the stock this news they're still protesting some of the settlement is irrelevant. two otherishes that will hang on the stock is one, obviously the price of oil and any rally you get here i think is going to be sold in the price of oil. >> bank of america cut the stock to sell. >> i think they're just joining the crowd.
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there's a problem with the dividend. whether they can sustain it with oil prices at this level and they've got a large russian exposure, which has been hanging over the stock for about 18 months, it's not going away. coming up stealth stock mover, one name quietly beating apple, netflix and google. the name and the trade is just up. with a rally of more than 24% over the past year, shorts are starting to pile in to one of the hottest sectors of this year. who are they targeting? should you follow their lead? opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you
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so maybe the same things aren't quite the same. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. you guys make your travel plans later, we're back on the air now. the s&p sectors -- like a travel agency over there. the stocks are approaching session lows, led to the down side by discretionary, health care and technology. financials at the bottom as well. chipotle is in the spotlight today after the lobbyist backed center for consumer freedom took out a full page in the "new york post" calling the company chubby chipotle. kth says it's part of a
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ridiculous smear campaign. the stock has been on a tear over the past three months, up 18%. let's debate it now. what's the play on chipotle. >> i don't own it, but i'm not going to buy it today, this does trouble me a little bit. whether there's substance or not. it reminds me of ashley madison. there was an honesty question there, whether ashley madison was actually deleting user profiles when requested. i think this chipotle thing, when i ask why chipotle and not shake shack, is because the real issue is they're apparently not being trul truthful about the quality of their food. i have no idea if that's true or not, but that seems to be the heart of the issue. >> totally wrong. chipotle does not suggest that it's healthy to eat chipotle every day. they put the calorie county on the menu. there's a conflating of the two terms "healthy" and "natural." what chipotle claims is it serves natural food. nonprocessed, not coming from a factory or conveyor belt. what it doesn't say is it's low
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fat. so a lot of people have real difficulty making space in their mind for the difference between those two terms. as far as the stock is concerned, it's not cheap, but it never has been. and yet it's continued to reward investors looking for growth and if you take a look at price action, scott, not once did the stock even get near its 200-day, didn't even break the 50-day during their tumult of last week. >> i don't disagree with anything you said. what if the market reset as stef put forth, resets growth versus value? growth gets shunned, value comes back into favor. which it hasn't been in seemingly forever at this point and stocks like chipotle are just thrown out? >> it's not a growth versus quality battle you're having. it's quality versus low quality. you have companies that are growth or value, outperforming companies that don't earn money and have a lot of debt.
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at the end of the day, strong stocks that hold up in corrections, when the market turns itself around. those are the names that continue to outperform. that's been the case since the beginning of this year. every time we've had a dip we've been let out of it by the companies that have held up the best. i don't know why that would all of a sudden change this stock for as long as it maintains sits uptrend. keep in mind, above its 50-day, only 15% of s&p 500 companies can claim that. this name is under accumulation, even during a 10% correction. >> i want to go back to something you said. i know you throw out things like the ashley madison thing. but i don't know if that's appropriate, accurate or relevant to this. this is one group's claim saying that you know, chipotle says how sustainable it is in their products are. again to josh's point sort of conflating the two issues, whether it's sustainable and
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healthy should be in the same sentence. >> that's a fair point. let me be clear about this, i don't have a position. >> one group's paid ad. >> you asked my opinion and all i'm saying is whether i would take a position today, no. the reason is when you're investing, you're looking for pattern recognition. i look at this i have no idea the quality of the food. i have no idea the accuracy of that statement and i'm not opining on that. what i'm saying is it's raising a question that is similar to my mind to the honesty issue with ashley madison. >> i think a lot of consumers would say that the quality of the product is very good. they're known for their freshness. >> this is one group as scott said, i think that kind of the proof is in the pudding in that if the consumer continues to go back and the company has seen phenomenal growth over the years. that they like the food and it's an $8 billion market in the mexican end market and i think there's a lot of opportunities
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for them. >> one of the reasons why stocks like this have done well and el pollo loco, is because the investment community had deemed these companies to put forth food that is healthier than -- the typical fast food. >> they cook in an open kitchen and they put the calorie count right in front of you. >> chipotle says the whole thing is in their words, a ridiculous smear campaign based on inaccurate representations of our positions and orchestrated by rick berman and his less-than-forthcoming nonprofit front group, the? for consumer freedom, initially founded by lawyer lobbyist rick berman. we have always been transparent in the way we run our business and the challenges we face, the same is not true of mr. berman and his center for consumer freedom. ask the center who is funding the organization and this campaign.
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that's the company's official response. a conversation that will likely continue over the next several days. it has the stock today front and center. >> but very little it does, judge. because jp morgan took them off their list put on i think wendy's and fogo di cao. you take it off when the stock is high and wait for it to break 700 before you get back in. >> coming up, john and joe are duking it out for first place in the halftime portfolio competition, today jon makes a big move into a hated stock. has he lost his mind? along with his hail and mote most of his pony tail. or could it be the big bet that pushes him to the top of the leaderboard? plus we head to the floor of the of the new york stock exchange. ] we know they're out there. you can't always see them. but it's our job to find them.
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and if me driving a that truck means that somebody gets to go home safer, then i'll drive it every day of the week. together, we're building a better california. hello, everyone, i'm sue herera with your cnbc news update for this hour. nissan recalling nearly 300,000 of its versa and versa note vehicles to fix a console panel. there's concerns it could catch the driver's shoe and slow
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braking speeds. the automaker saying that there's one report of an accident tied to the issue but no word of any deaths. drivers over the labor day weekend will see the lowest gasoline prices since 2004. the oil price information service finding the average price for unleaded gas is $2.44 a gallon. that's nearly $1 cheaper than last year. new orleans mayor mitch landrieu will go under house arrest if he does not pay city firefighters. a judge issuing that ruling this morning in a hearing between the union and city. there has been ongoing litigation about the firefighters' pension fund and back wages. a new york city teacher is in trouble with the law. after allegedly flying a drone at the u.s. open thursday night. police say it crashed into an empty section of seats, thank goodness. the teacher, 26-year-old daniel verley now faces charges of reckless endangerment and operating a drone in a residential area. >> at least it was empty seats
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that could have hurt somebody. >> the crowds are huge. >> they're huge exactly. >> and they're packed in. >> have a good holiday weekend. we're at the lows of the day, the dow jones industrial average down by more than 305 points. it's approaching a 2% decline for the dow. the s&p losing steam here, down by 1.75%. the nasdaq down 1.24%. the market is starting to take seriously the fed rate hike in a couple of weeks after a jobs report that may have come in slightly short of expectations but deemed by many investors perhaps to be good enough to get the fed off the sidelines. and with a rate hike in a couple weeks' time. bob pisani is down on the floor of the new york stock exchange today. maybe that's what we're seeing today as we head into another weekend. >> and china will be open on
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monday and we won't be, a little uncertainty about that two developments next week may impact the markets, the first is china economic data and the second is the start of the analysts conference season. there will be a raft of china detate that will get scrutiny. trade, cp i, ppi. i think for u.s. stocks, is the analysts' conference season begins. normally this is not a big market mover. but with all the global uncertainty traders will be looking for comments from ceos on the state of their business for guidance in pricing stocks. this will be the first time a the love tech financial and industrial companies will have a chance to address investors since their conference calls this was several months ago. we have a lost stale information. first is the citigroup global conference and richard templeton
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who is the ceo of texas instruments will give the address and presentations of alibaba, yahoo, microsoft and st micro. and barclays financial services coming up. wells fargo, pnc suntrust and the citigroup industrials conference. there's a very competitive market. there will be several dozen in the next few weeks. the good news is we'll have an update on the potential q 3 earnings outlook. a lot riden on the numbers for them. >> i think i heard you san oh one of the earlier shows that earnings from the financial have not come down. >> we're expecting financials to be up 9% that was one of the things that was supposed to ep help us in the second half on earnings. we're not getting the move up in interest rates that would help the banks at this point. i think the numbers are high, they're probably going to have to come down. i'm eager to hear about some of
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them from the financial conferences coming up. >> bob, thanks so much. doc, do you have thoughts? >> i think the financials and the industrials, both those two big conferences will be market-moving conferences. to be a catalyst for people to hold on or exit if they don't lining like what they're hearing. hearing. i think they'll hold in the financial aspect. as far as the industrials, that will be a sho me. they'll have to come up with some reasons for to you get in there and hold them. >> don't be surprised from what you hear from tkland. >> i know how to just say that with financials. on the financials, seasonally the third quarter is the slowest. that's expected, but from some of the checks that we've done and things i've done in terms of reading, maybe it's not as bad as expected and the volatility
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is helping the capital markets business, it might not be as bad as people are fearing. >> i want to give you a look at some of the week's winners and losers. the mark has been so volatile of wait, cablevision, l brands up 8%. look at some of the losers as well in the week, joy global, doc you mentioned this one down 20%. netflix -- >> it was one of the ones in the green today. you're right. but they actually stepped in and they were buying today. i don't have itt up on my scree but i think it was the lead stock in the s&p 500 after the harsh sell-off. >> netflix has had a brutal week, down 14%. i tried to make the point yesterday or the day before, it's a different way of looking at the vx. if netflix is up, chances are you have an upmarket. if netflix is down, chances are
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the you'll get a down market. >> i think it's a good point. but you need to have a little more context than one week's performance. so look at the lirs of weekly winners, you have green mountain coffee down there. which is down 70% the last year. netflix down 14% this week but up 100% since january 1st. if we're just judging stocks based on how they did over the last five trading days we get a very skewed picture of what's going on with these companies. >> leadership that we're talking about with netflix. if we go back six, seven months ago you would have said that with apple. the leadership will change flimt. >> i thought one of the most telling signs this week was a day when the market was up nicely and apple was not. >> and it's hard to remember a time where you've had a strong upmarket. and a name like apple would still be down. >> i have issues with chine and
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you also have issues with product cycle and margins. and the stock is over owned today. it's one of the more vulnerable names i think. >> one of the stocks on the loser list is noble energy. down 30% recently at least. you're jumping in? >> because they were buying unusual activity judge, september 30 strike over 15,000 of these calls have now been bought. we jumped in, bought them along with them. it was one of the few stocks among the s&p 500 that was in the green. that was the reason we liked it. here you've got a friday, long holiday weekend and someone is buying a lot of short-term calls. sometimes that says that people think they have tomorrow's newspaper today. you saw with schlumberger and cameron, this one is 30% below the 200-day moving average. i don't think it takes a lot to get this one moving with this one green and everything else, all of its competitors red, maybe they're telling us something, so i added it to the
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halftime portfolio as well. >> the hot sector being targeted by short sellers, starting to pay off and our international sandwich correspondent, focused on an under-the-radar food stock getting a mountain dew kick-start. he will explain. can you figure out who we're talking about? you're watching cnbc.
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coming up on "power lunch,"
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stocks are tanking, we're down 300 points on the dow. is it time to go to cash in this market? bill gross says yes and he'll be joining us. one stock that could help you ride out the market turmoil is up this week. up in the past one month. up more than 50% this year. it's also up today. and conoco phillips announcing thousands of job cuts this week. what today's employment report is saying about the health of the oil economy and lots more scotty, see you at the top of the hour. another sign of worry for investors coming from one of the hottest parts of the market. biotech. dom chu here to tell us why the former wall street darlings are now big targets for shorts. i'm sure it has nothing more to do with the fact that many of them ripped. >> i think that you've hit the nail on the head. these stocks have been tremendously hot over the course of the last few years here and that's brought up a lot of conversations about whether or
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not this is one of those quote-unquote bubbles. the debate rages on. that's the s&p biotech index, up 1 a% over the past three years. the right-hand part of your screen is where things get a little bit choppy. is this the beginning of a rollover? if you take a look at one of the etfs that tracks it, tracks the big nasdaq biotech index. those shares onnen an intraday basis were up 30% on a year-to-date. so still strong, but showing signs of weakness. >> if you look at some of the big large cap biotechnology, pharmaceutical names, biogen, alexian down 6, that's part of the story, for biogen on the high-to-low basis, 52-week high to where it trades today, lost 37% of its market value. so again scott, calling into some question for some traders
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whether or not the momentum has shifted from extremely positive for biotech to maybe the signs of a start to negative. >> we're hitting the areas that had some huge gains. >> can we split it into two. first off, short selling on valuation is a dangerous game. some people do it, i know. but it's dangerous, you can get taken out waiting for the correction or whatever you want to call it biotech, the second point is just its turn. every sector of this market has had its turn to get upended. now it's biotech's turn. >> i think gym is right. you know when they raid the bordello, even the piano player gets pulled out sometimes. this is a sector that hasn't done any harm to anyone fundamentally. companies continuing to beat and raise earnings expectations, the drug approval rate is through the roof like my cholesterol and
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in the meantime, they had to get hit. too much growth money hiding out in these stocks, they've been too well behaved, it was their turn. the stock that's up 5,000% in the past nine years. beating apple, google and netflix. the big unveil and the trade is coming up next. plus jim laboren th ebenthal on.
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big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.
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. want to show you again -- sorry. >> it's stephanie every time. >> pay attention. >> it's usually me today it's you. >> you're going to go in the corner in a few minutes. >> let's look at the dow heat map. we're at session lows, we're back in case you didn't realize it. disney -- is the best of the worst. everything in the dow today is negative. stocks are barely off the lows of the day. the dow is down 300. we're approaching about a 2% decline. goldman sachs, picking up the rear today. down nearly 3%. you've got dew point is weak, merck, microsoft, ge, jp morgan. >> does anybody want to sit there on labor day weekend, sunday, knowing you have monday off and asia doesn't. like that, i think that totally plays into the psychology. >> getting ahead of china coming back. >> off of three days, i want to
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think about as being as fully exposed as possible. given that asia is going to be open and we're not. i think that's part of it. >> don't forget china closed today. china closed yesterday as well. >> they don't know from labor day over there. they'll be out there selling stocks for a change. >> all right. let's in the nasdaq 100, one name has quietly beaten apple, netflix and google for ten years, the name is priceline, up 5,000% over the past decade. the question is, is it a good bet for the next ten years? interesting stat, right, people probably didn't know which one that was, the nasdaq 100, so much focus has been on technology lately. and what's happening there. >> think about ha they do. at the top of the show, i talked about lending. these guys, it's a lending operation, judge. because priceline is buying up the rooms from hotels and airlines and so forth. they become the loan officer, because they're giving these guys the cash that they tedespe
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need. at rates that the buyers of the loans eyes' much better rates than they could have gotten otherwise, so priceline, it's a great service, people use it, g to use it and many hotels and airlines need this desperately. that's why they've done so well. >> 21 times forward estimates is not exactly cheap. i'd love it if it were to pull back a little bit. they're right in the end markets in terms of leisure and travel. this is where people are spending their money, this is where consumers are going. they're very competitive. there's only one big player competing against them and they just have done a really good job. i just like to see it pull back a little bit but it is not egregious in terms of that evaluation. i just want it cheaper. >> i'm with steph. i love it. $1,200-plus, i'm not excited to run out and buy it. i wish i was smart enough to have owned it before now.
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>> i'm with everybody. we've got the trades you're probably missing, plus the game plan for the second week as well. or for next week. a number. ery auto insurs but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range
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to move your company from what it is now... to what it needs to become. there is a look at the market picture at this hour. we spent so much time talking about stocks but there's a look at rates. with so many investors watching the 2-year and 10-year trying to gauge what each are telling about what the fed could do in a couple weeks' time. there's the s&p 500. we pretty much are at the lows of the day for the major averages. 1,919 is where the s&p currently sits. want to do a twitter question. one of our followers wants to know, is the market pricing in a rate hike or, if it is, why are banks getting hammered? that's a good question. all of you at one point have
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talked about the banks and liking them. >> you got to like them. ultimately they will benefit everybody from big banks like jpmorgan global to a schwab or anybody else that has consumer lending, whether it is margin or otherwise, judge. but many of these stocks are also just being washed down with the market. i don't think this is an outlook on the rate picture. i think this is just them being taken down with the market. >> i think with the spring everybody got into these stocks because we expected the fed to raise. then it got questionable. i think then in the last couple weeks people are much more uncertain as to what the fed is going to do, yet people have gotten into these stocks and have done pretty well. now they're down 10, 15%. morgan stanley is done 17%. they want to hear from these companies at these conferences to hear what the fundamentals will be. can the fundamentals offset the
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uncertainty in the rate situation. >> banks are balance sheet wise the safest they've been in a decade. margin of safety is what you have in the banks. say rates don't go up or they don't see earnings expansion as a result of that. you are paying 1.2 times book value. so whatever. you buy this -- so i think from that standpoint rather than just having a view on whether rates go up a quarter of a point or not this month, the bigger picture is you have a margin of safety getting into the financials. >> do some under-the-radar as well as some things our experts have noticed that maybe you haven't seen today. jim? >> i've noticed this week that the semiconductor index has actually performed very nicely in the face of a mostly down trend. particularly some of the bigger names like intel and micron. the reason i find this interesting is the sentiment's been so negative here, particularly after the second quarter earnings. this is an ongoing trend that people think pcs are dying. and maybe they are, but maybe
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also these stocks have just gotten so cheap that they're holding up here nicely particularly in a down take. >> the airlines have held up well this week, even caught an upgrade earlier in the week. delta's actually up today, so is jetblue. lower oil prices, cheap stocks, easy comparisons ahead. a good combination for a group that's gotten hammered. >> sauce. scott, millennials love sauce. what's going on in the casual dining space, millennials are demanding for customization. it is hard to switch over an entire kitchen to do totally different food. what they're getting by with doing and it is working really well is spicing up the sauces that they're offering. if you look at the news out of buffalo wild wings today which, whi by the way is the hottest stock in the market, 2% from its all-time high, they are introducing something that's going to include mountain dew in the sauce -- >> in the sauce? >> in the sauce.
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yes. which is fine if that's what you're into. kfc introduced finger lickin' sauce and saw their entrees go up 50% from that category. this kind ever thing is happening at all the fast casual chains. they're trying to respond to consumer demand for innovation in a way that's -- you can kind of be conscious of cost. i think it is working. >> in the couple minutes left of the show, try to guide you to the rest of the trading day. steph, what should we be keyed on on tuesday? china's going to be back online. what are you going to be watching for? >> i think that's going to be the driver. i think that people are wondering if china -- how does it trade, how does it open, how does it affect our markets. if it goes down can we actually just stabilize here. >> people are back tuesday en masse, maybe there is aen more
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reaction to the jobs report. you tell me. >> yeah. i think to josh's point, people are nerve puss coming in to this long weekend and that's a lot of the hedging you've seen here today. as far as a stock that i'm watching, judge, take a look at viacom because this one's higher even than it was prior to the sell-off. looks like it's basically in an accumulation mode so i'm watching that one into next week. >> keep it simple here. we're uncertain about the markets right now. i want a margin of safety, to use the term that josh pointed out. >> what gives you more certainty? >> the fed making a move in two weeks. then you're done with it. you can be done with this discussion. if they don't we're going to be talking about december for the next two months. we're going to drive each other crazy. >> you think we'll be be real volatile between now and then? >> the easy answer is yes, we are. but to save that volatility or protect against it, look for cash on the balance sheet. something like cisco systems has $40 billion of cash against a $110 billion market cap.
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>> i think time will tell whether or not we have a full-blown asian currency crisis. if we don't, stocks will make a new high before the end of the year. >> there is amid all of this gloomy and negative sentiment still people out there like lee cooperman who think you'll have a great run to the end of the year. have a great holiday weekend. "power lunch" begins right now. stocks are near session lows. thedown right now is down 297 points. the nasdaq and s&p also down more than 1%. keep in mind, folks, this part of the day has been the most volatile part of trading during this rough patch for the markets. hi, everybody. i'm brian sullivan in for tyler mathisen today. >> mandy drury, live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. hello there. i'll get back to the markets in just a minute's time but first we want to get to the jobs report from this morning and the impact that could have on the fed decision which is due out in just 13 days. >> senior economics reporter steve leisman is here now with

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